By Mahendran Kumar | September 1, 2026
Updated September 2, 2026
I LOOKED AT GOLD AGAIN
I hadn’t seriously opened CMC Markets to look at gold since 2022.
Then, recently, something made me curious enough to take another look.
It wasn’t a trading signal.
It wasn’t an indicator.
It was what I was seeing happening around physical gold in Asia.
China.
India.
Hong Kong.
Central-bank buying.
Gold infrastructure.
The increasing importance of physical ownership and the movement of gold around the world.
And I thought to myself:
China wants all the gold in the world. Period.
Obviously, that’s an exaggeration.
But there is a serious point behind it.
China has been steadily increasing its official gold reserves. In July, the People’s Bank of China added another 20 tonnes, extending its reported buying streak to 21 consecutive months. Its official holdings reached about 2,366 tonnes.
China also has an enormous industrial economy in which gold has applications in electronics and technology.
India is a completely different story.
India doesn’t simply use gold.
India loves gold.
Gold is jewellery.
Gold is family wealth.
Gold is weddings.
Gold is festivals.
Gold is tradition.
It is something that can be worn, held, passed to children and preserved across generations.
So two of the world’s largest populations have very different reasons for wanting the same thing.
China wants gold for strategic, financial and industrial reasons.
India wants gold for financial, cultural and deeply traditional reasons.
And both are enormous markets.
That was what tempted me to open the chart.
Four minutes later, I was staring at something I hadn’t expected.
THE CHART HADN’T BROKEN
Gold had experienced an extraordinary rally.
Then came the correction.
A very substantial one.
But when I stepped back and looked at the longer-term structure, something stood out.
The correction had not, so far, destroyed the broader sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
The market had pulled back.
It had found support.
And it had begun attempting to establish another base.
That doesn’t mean gold can only go higher.
Markets don’t work that way.
But it does mean the longer-term bullish structure remains worthy of attention.
And that’s what caught my eye.
THE LEVELS I’M WATCHING
I’m not interested in pretending that I know exactly where gold will be on a particular day.
I’m interested in the levels where the market tells us whether the thesis is strengthening or weakening.
Around $4,100
If gold continues to correct, this is an area I would watch closely as a potential support zone.
$4,450–$4,500
A convincing reclaim of this region would improve the short- and medium-term picture considerably.
The 2026 high
That’s the big test.
If gold gets back there, the entire market will be watching.
My own view is that gold has a reasonable chance of challenging — and potentially breaking — that high during Q4 2026.
November is the window I’m watching most closely.
If the market needs longer to build its base, then early 2027 becomes the next window.
I’m not claiming gold has an appointment with November.
Markets don’t work like that.
I’m saying that, based on the structure I’m seeing, I would not be surprised to see another major attempt at the highs during Q4 or early 2027.
THE PHYSICAL GOLD STORY
This is where the chart becomes much more interesting.
Because gold isn’t simply a line on a screen.
There is a physical market underneath it.
And much of that story is increasingly centred on Asia.
China’s continued official accumulation is one part of it. The World Gold Council reports that the People’s Bank of China has now extended its reported buying streak to 21 months.
But central-bank buying is only one part of the story.
There is also the enormous private and industrial relationship with gold across Asia.
India’s relationship with gold is particularly difficult to compare with almost anywhere else.
For generations, gold has represented wealth, security, status, family inheritance and tradition.
When you combine Chinese strategic and industrial demand with India’s enormous cultural and jewellery relationship with gold, the Asian physical-gold story becomes very difficult to ignore.
And then something else happened.
HONG KONG IS BUILDING THE INFRASTRUCTURE
In July 2026, Hong Kong launched, on a trial basis, a central gold clearing and settlement system.
The initial phase also includes physical connectivity with the Shanghai Gold Exchange.
Hong Kong’s government says the wider programme is intended to develop a modern, full-chain gold trading ecosystem, including clearing, connectivity, price discovery, risk management, storage and insurance. Plans also include expanding storage capacity and refining capabilities.
That matters.
Because Asia isn’t simply buying gold.
It is increasingly building the infrastructure through which gold can be:
stored → traded → cleared → settled.
That is a much bigger development than simply watching the daily gold price.
GOLD IS MOVING — AND SO IS THE FINANCIAL INFRASTRUCTURE AROUND IT
If countries want greater control over their reserves, greater diversification and faster access to physical assets during periods of uncertainty, then where gold is stored matters.
So does how quickly it can be accessed.
And this brings us to Europe.
⚠️ SEPTEMBER 2 UPDATE: THE DUTCH MOVE
The morning after I wrote this article, another piece of the puzzle appeared.
The Dutch central bank, De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB), announced on September 2 that it had transferred approximately 86 tonnes of gold from New York and Ottawa to London between March and August 2026.
DNB’s explanation was explicit: increasing geopolitical unrest and the need to strengthen crisis preparedness.
The bank also said that improving the liquidity and tradability of its gold would make the reserves more readily available in a crisis.
The numbers are striking.
Before the move, approximately:
- 31.3% of Dutch gold was in New York
- 19.7% was in Ottawa
- 18.1% was in London
- 30.8% was held in the Netherlands
After the relocation:
- 18.5% New York
- 18.5% Ottawa
- 32.1% London
- 30.8% Netherlands
London is now the largest single location for Dutch gold.
And there is an important detail.
This wasn’t simply a case of the Netherlands bringing everything home.
DNB says part of the operation involved selling gold in New York and replacing it with gold purchased in London, while another portion was physically transferred through the Netherlands before being moved onwards to London.
So the direction wasn’t simply:
America → Netherlands
It was:
North America → London
That distinction matters.
PRUDENCE IS BECOMING COMMON SENSE
DNB’s official explanation is crisis preparedness and tradability.
That’s the fact.
I’m not going to claim that the Dutch central bank said it no longer trusted America.
It didn’t.
Nor am I going to claim that the move proves Europe fears its gold could be seized.
It doesn’t prove that either.
But there is a much bigger geopolitical environment surrounding the decision.
And that environment cannot simply be ignored.
Global unrest is making Europe nervous.
Across Europe, the conversation around preparedness, resilience and deterrence is changing.
Russia isn’t joking. Europe knows it.
And with another winter approaching, preparedness is becoming less of a theoretical exercise and more of a necessity.
In that environment, moving strategic reserves into locations where they can be accessed and traded quickly makes sense.
Which brings me to a word I think is increasingly important:
In Europe, prudence is no longer paranoia. It’s becoming common sense.
That doesn’t mean panic.
It means preparation.
THE WEST IS REPOSITIONING TOO
This is what makes the gold story more interesting to me.
We often talk about China accumulating gold.
We talk about India consuming enormous quantities of physical gold.
We talk about Hong Kong and Shanghai developing infrastructure around it.
But now we also have a European central bank saying, in effect:
We want our gold positioned where it can be accessed quickly if circumstances deteriorate.
That is a different kind of gold demand.
It isn’t speculation.
It isn’t jewellery.
It isn’t electronics.
It’s strategic preparedness.
And that is worth paying attention to.
TWO WORLDS — ONE ASSET
Look at the picture from both directions.
ASIA
China continues accumulating official gold.
India continues to have an enormous cultural and physical relationship with the metal.
Hong Kong is developing gold-clearing and settlement infrastructure.
Shanghai remains central to China’s gold ecosystem.
EUROPE
Geopolitical risk is changing the conversation around preparedness.
The Netherlands has repositioned 86 tonnes.
London is now the largest single location for Dutch gold.
And the question of custody, accessibility and strategic reserves is becoming more important.
Different motivations.
Different countries.
Different problems.
But one common asset:
GOLD.
DOES THIS GUARANTEE HIGHER GOLD PRICES?
No.
And I don’t want to pretend otherwise.
Gold can fall.
The dollar can strengthen.
Bond yields can rise.
Investors can sell.
Technical structures can fail.
My bullish view is a thesis, not a guarantee.
But there is a difference between saying:
“Gold must go up.”
and saying:
“There are increasingly powerful reasons for the world to continue caring about physical gold.”
The second statement is the one I believe.
SO WHAT AM I WATCHING?
Quite simply:
$4,100
Potential support if the correction continues.
$4,450–$4,500
The area I want to see reclaimed convincingly.
2026 HIGH
The major test.
If gold breaks that level with strong momentum, the market enters another phase altogether.
My base case remains:
Correction → consolidation → recovery → challenge of the highs.
My preferred window remains Q4 2026, with early 2027 as the alternative if the market takes longer.
AND THEN THERE IS THE BIGGER QUESTION
Maybe the most interesting part of this entire story isn’t the price.
It’s the behaviour underneath the price.
What happens when:
- China wants more strategic gold;
- India’s cultural relationship with gold remains enormous;
- Asian financial centres build more physical-gold infrastructure;
- central banks continue diversifying reserves;
- and European countries become increasingly concerned with access to strategic assets during geopolitical crises?
At some point, we have to ask whether gold is becoming more important before the market fully reflects that importance.
That’s the question I came back to after opening the chart for the first time in years.
WHY I LOOKED
I didn’t open the gold chart because somebody told me to buy gold.
I opened it because I was watching what was happening with physical gold in Asia.
Then I looked at the chart.
Four minutes was enough to make me pay attention.
And the following morning, Europe gave me another reason.
86 tonnes of Dutch gold had just been repositioned.
Coincidence?
Perhaps.
Confirmation?
Too early to say.
But interesting?
Absolutely.
GOLD AND THE HUMAN STORY
There is something almost strange about humanity’s relationship with this metal.
We’ve valued it for thousands of years.
Kings wanted it.
Empires wanted it.
Banks wanted it.
Central banks still want it.
Industry needs it.
Investors want it.
And in countries such as India, people don’t simply regard it as an investment.
They wear it.
They give it at weddings.
They pass it from generation to generation.
Perhaps that’s why gold has always occupied such a strange place in human civilisation.
It doesn’t rust.
It doesn’t corrode.
It can be melted down and transformed without losing its essential character.
It is scarce.
It is beautiful.
And, unlike a promise written on paper, you can hold it.
Ever wonder why humanity has associated gold with the divine for so long?
Maybe we’ve always understood that gold is about more than money.
FINAL THOUGHT
I don’t know whether gold reaches $5,000, $6,000 or somewhere nobody is currently predicting.
I’m not going to pretend I know.
What I do know is what made me look again.
Asia’s physical-gold story.
China.
India.
Hong Kong.
Shanghai.
Central banks.
Strategic reserves.
And now Europe, quietly thinking about where its gold needs to be when the world becomes less predictable.
The chart may be telling us that the correction is coming to an end.
The physical market may be telling us that the strategic importance of gold is increasing.
And governments may be telling us something else:
When the world becomes uncertain, having something real — and having access to it — matters.
My bias remains bullish.
But the market gets the final vote.
As always.
— Mahendran Kumar
AUTHOR’S NOTE
This article represents my own observations, opinions and market interpretation.
AI tools were used to assist with research, source discovery, fact-checking and organising supporting information.
The analysis, opinions, questions and conclusions expressed in this article are my own.
This article is an expression of opinion and market analysis, not financial advice.
📰 Sources & Further Reading
- BBC News — coverage referenced in the September 2 update
- Daily Mail — coverage referenced in the September 2 update
- De Nederlandsche Bank — official statement on the gold relocation
Leave a Comment